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Bryan Tuesday 24 July 2007 7 30 am The latest Newspoll is in today s Australian with commentary from Dennis Shanahan The headline prediction was 55 per cent for Labor and 45 per cent for the Coalition Labor s primary vote prediction

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the government some comfort The big change is in the attitudinal polling Newspoll has Rudd ten points in front of Howard as preferred prime minister This was reported as a Newspoll record On the satisfaction front net satisfaction with Rudd continued to improve while it declined marginally for Howard

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declining The other trend graphs I found particularly interesting were the trends by age group Here the index graph is aligned to the Newspoll election survey conducted 6 7 October 2004

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AEC rather than Newspoll reporting of the results from the 2004 election

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Related Link Newspoll tables February 19 Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is Australia s most popular Prime Minister in more than 20 years according to a Newspoll published in today s

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non metro appeal It is also interesting to speculate on whether we are beginning to see an interest rate motivated return to Howard in metro areas The final set of graphs are on Gender

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than the 2007 Howard Rudd gap Second the Howard Rudd gap has been trending wider over the past three months Note as currently constructed the graph assumes a 24 November election Today s Newspoll is the second last poll published for September Morgan will be the last So far almost 9500 people have been polled this month September is turning out a bit of a

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of the predicted primary vote I have presented these as both raw percentages and as an index where 100 is the AEC rather than Newspoll reporting of the results from the 2004 election

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Regulars here will know that I am almost always sceptical about unexplained sudden poll movements This latest Newspoll is no exception I suspect this poll is an outlier although there is a

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In all states there has been a drift from Howard since the last election However not all of that sentiment went to Labor In Victoria for example it was only with the ascension of Kevin

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ratings for Howard These have been roughly equal since Q4 2005 In today s figures Howard s dissatisfaction rating exceeds his satisfaction rating for the first time in a while The usual opinion poll graphs are here You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs

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Again we see the decline in the Coalition s primary vote spanning the period since the last election and Labor s improvement occurring largely in the post Rudd period

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UPDATE The Newspoll results over at The Oz are here http www theaustralian news com au files newspoll 4 mar jpg This entry was posted on March 3 2008 at 10 14 pm and is filed under Uncategorized You

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The Coalition is behind in all categories except Western Australia To see how much things have changed it s worth comparing the second quarter in 2007 with the first quarter in 2005

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pollchart newspoll 1 > 06 Jun 2007 08 08 51k pollchart newspoll 1 > 06 Jun 2007 08 08 68k pollchart newspoll 1 > 06 Jun 2007 08 08 77k pollchart reuters png 20 Jun 2007 22 01 23k

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The final set of graphs are on Gender

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To see how much things have changed it s worth comparing the second quarter in 2007 with the first quarter in 2005 Side by side the last two graphs look like this Check out that change in the 18 34 year age cohort and the over 50s

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Image wa newspoll

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dramatic decline None of the data pairs suggested the most accurate fortnightly trend prediction of zero when you consider that Newspoll publishes it results in integer percentage points In summary none of the consecutive data pairs gave the most accurate trend result possible Only 30 per cent of the data pairs for this period gave a reasonable prediction of Labor s